206,25
200,00
Disaster. Eyes fixed on the viewer. A glass of whisky sitting beside it on the pub table. Friday afternoon, shirt collar unbuttoned, tie on his chest now. Nobody could have guessed that the prices would drop below 250. Nobody. 196,88
«It's the first time I’ve seen you with a whisky this early. Can I sit down? Something wrong? ».
«It's the first time I’ve seen you with a whisky this early. Can I sit down? Something wrong? ».
«I am in debt with China Standard.».
«How much?».
«I bought a month ago at 500. And I 've got 10,000.».
«10,000? 5 million?».
Silence fell over the table, an island of calm in the chaos of the pub.
«Yeah.».
More silence.
«But have you got 5 million?».
«If I run up debts, sell everything, even Sarah's things, maybe I can avoid jail. But I'd have to start from scratch, with nothing, no home. Without Sarah ... ».
«Why do you say that?».
«Do you think she will stick around a loser?».
«I always thought you were a solid couple, you loved each other.».
«Of course I love her, and I'm sure she loves me, but I don't know how long we'll hold out in front of this. To stay afloat I should sell all her things, she should give up everything. Can you picture Sarah leaving the house in the centre to go and live in the suburbs? Giving up the two-month holiday in Polynesia? Can you picture her?».
«You should talk to her.».
«Yes, of course. I'll talk to her. Tonight.».
Silence again, while staring at the viewer again.
«Now we are under 180 ...».
«How did you get so much debt with HC? And with China Standard, too?».
«I had a tip for the Chinese market..».
«A tip?».
«There were rumours about the conflict between the Shanghai Districts. You remember that China Standard was trading at around 300 before the war but then, during the fighting, it shot up to 900. After peace talks started, the price fell back slowly for six months and was expected to settle at 300 in the coming weeks. But a month ago, I got a rumour that the negotiations had stopped and they’d started fighting again. Meanwhile, as you know, during the war contracts went out for the construction of 10 nuclear reactors in Kazakhstan. Now for technological work like that, China Standard are the best, better than Dark Skilled India or Malawi, for example. So that’s when I took the risk: if the war really resumed, then the quotations for Standard China were bound to shoot up again. So I bought a load of Standard China at 500, undertaking to pay a month later, which is Monday; and I sent the consignment off to Kazakhstan. Slowly, step by step, from Shanghai to Alma Ata in a month, I moved it away from the Districts and got it closer to the nuclear sites. If the war had resumed before the arrival of that load in Kazakhstan, my Standard China would have been the only ones on the market for months. Two days ago, though, the Districts announced the end of the war and with a lot of deep bowing and smiling, they signed a long-term peace treaty. And that’s not all, this morning we had another surprise: not only is the war over, but Canton has announced an absolutely unexpected surplus of HC – Human Commodities – and is going to start exporting them soon. The result is: not only Shanghai commodities, but also Canton ones are flooding the market, and as of this morning prices have slumped... But what's the matter with you? Did I say something wrong?».
A moment's hesitation, then: «Well, I guess I'd better tell you: it was us who spread the false rumours about the resumption of hostilities. It was not my idea, but I didn't stand back when the Members suggested it.»
«You? It was you? You?».
«I swear, I didn't know you were involved.».
«But why? Why this game?».
A deep, resigned sigh.
«Yes, now I can say it. Now ... I swear, I didn’t imagine, I couldn't know ...».
«But why? Tell me why.».
«China and the China Standard have nothing to do with it – Dark Malawi was our goal. We’d had an advance tip-off that there was a new outbreak of Ebola in Nigeria, and there was a chance it could spread to Lagos. In any case, it would have exploded near the main camps of Dark Malawi, causing at the very least delivery holdups: consignments would have to be quarantined to control the outbreak. Although Dark Malawi is a very hard-wearing product, losses could not be excluded. At worst, then, if the virus had been confined to the remote forest villages, we would have had late delivery due to quarantine. At best, if Ebola had reached Lagos and begun to spread in the camps, then we would have had a historic rise in prices. Our source was reliable and so we focused on Dark Malawi very strongly but, in order not to arouse suspicions about our manoeuvres and be the only ones to exploit the opportunity, we had to divert the attention of potential rivals before the official publication of the Ebola report. So we began to invent all sorts of false news, from the forecast about the monsoon in India, to the decline in rice production in Vietnam and, in fact, the resumption of war in the Districts ... Our strategy worked: no one noticed anything and the game went pretty well, though not very well, because as you know, the virus was contained and it essentially had no effect on production, as we had hoped, or maybe dreamed. The delivery delays raised the prices by just 10%, but even so, it was all right for us.».
Elbows on the table, head in his hands.
«Oh Lord ... Are you telling me that I ruined myself for a mere 10% on your Dark Malawi?».
«If Ebola had caught on it could have been be a lot more.».
«And now? What do I do now? ».
«How much is China Standard worth now?».
«150. At this rate, Monday I'll sell off under 100, and if I don't get at least one million, I’m bankrupt.».
They contemplated their glasses, now empty, for a long time.
«Listen, I've got a proposal for you. It's not the best thing, but it will at least guarantee you that million.».
«And what would that be? Are you going to buy the Standard China at 100?». «No, it's the transport I need. We received a proposal this morning, it's about some old Russian nuclear sites: they might have some material which could be used in those sites in Kazakhstan. It's a deal to be completed in a few days, and we refused it because we wouldn’t know how to move down there so quickly. But if you have a convoy in that area, you could divert it to Russia and we could load it from there, then send it to Kazakhstan.».
«But one million is too much for a train, it's out of this world!».
«I know, but I could justify it to our shareholders saying there was nothing else available. Yes, that’s exactly what I’ll say: it was the only train available!” – he leaned toward his friend – “even if, in reality, but this is just between you and me, I'm doing it to help you get back a bit.».
«Thank you ...».
«Don't mention it. As I said, I feel a bit responsible.».
«But what shall I do with the load?».
«Get rid of it. I need the train empty, I have to load it in Russia, and those old sites are out of this world, in the middle of nowhere: we wouldn't know what to do with 10,000 Standard China, they’d cost us an arm and a leg just for storage. Get rid of them, all you have to do is pick up the phone. Cancel now and divert the train. It's one million, it may be enough to start over. Think of Sarah!» – he got up – «Another whisky?».
He came back with the glasses just as the phone call was ending.
«Done: the convoy will head to Russia, then you'll tell me where.».
«Well done! Among other things, the Chinese always create problems: they always put sub-standard or even sick elements in the loads. Drink up, forget about Standard China, think of Sarah!».
«I always think of her, when I saw her the first time, when she won the title of Miss University. What was it? 2032? Or '33? I've always been in love with her since then.».
«Drink. Everything will be fine. Love will win out in the end, I'm sure.».
As they savoured their whisky, a beam of electrons set in motion another electron beam and this another, then another, and another, farther and farther away. And through cables, antennas and satellites, that beam sent a piece of information that, after travelling overland and underground, eventually reached the ears of the driver of a goods train inching its way north-westwards over the snow-covered expanses of the Asian steppe. When it reached its destination, that beam made the train stop, the side walls of the wagons open, and a load of 10,000 Chinese, scantily dressed, evacuate with efficiency and expertise. When the last Standard China had set foot on the ground, the side walls closed again and the train moved on, as rapidly as possible.
Even if, on returning home, his thoughts were entirely taken up by the impending conversation with Sarah, which most of his later life would depend upon, he would have felt a bit relieved if he had seen that load. Because it is true that the parameters established by the WTO on Human Commodities are stringent. And it is true that the Standard China is defined as "a young adult Chinese of either sex, aged between 17 and 28 years old, of at least average height and clinical history documented by the opinions expressed by independent experts" - as well as countless other details. But it is also true that the wholesale merchants of the producing countries often circumvent those strict guidelines. Thus consignments are often found to be riddled with sub-standard elements – too young, too old, or sick – and when they reach their destination you have to discard them. In this case, just a quick glance at the load would have convinced him that, after all, getting rid of them was the wisest thing to do. Because among those 10,000 badly dressed Standard China wandering here and there in the icy wilderness (most of whom, however, would be eliminated by the cold of the night, and the rest, the next day, by the gangs of robbers endemic in the area), a high proportion was definitely sub-standard. And he would have been consoled, at least partly, for his loss if he had known that, of those 10,000, a good 10% were children under 12, who would have resulted in a further heavy liability when unloaded.
In such a market there is a demand price for each amount of the commodity, that is, a price at which each particular amount of the commodity can find purchasers in a day or week or year. The circumstances which govern this price for any given amount of the commodity vary in character from one problem to another; but in every case the more of a thing is offered for sale in a market the lower is the price at which it will find purchasers... Marshall, Principles of Economy
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9,202,458,484 World Population estimated by 2050 . U.S. Census Bureau
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